Turkey is still most vulnerable out of all emerging markets

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Turkey is still most vulnerable out of all emerging markets

November 07, 2018 - 14:39
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Change in investors’ moods in regards to Turkey’s assets since September did not help to change fundamental reasons, for which the country is leading the list of emerging markets most vulnerable to external shocks, Bloomberg Economics concludes.

Photo © Gerd Altmann, CC0 1.0

Change in investors’ moods in regards to Turkey’s assets since September did not help to change fundamental reasons, for which the country is leading the list of emerging markets most vulnerable to external shocks, Bloomberg Economics concludes.

Inflation in the country is the highest after Argentina. It is 14,4% and much higher than target level of the central bank. Current account deficit is the widest (-5,7%). Even though interest rate hike by 625 basis points caused lira’s growth, the Turkish currency is still 30% down for this year.

External risks that can trigger another selloff of Turkey’s assets include possible further escalation of US-China trade war, growing borrowing costs in the US and dollar strengthening.

Argentina, South Africa and Egypt follow after Turkey in the list of mostly vulnerable emerging markets. Saudi Arabia, Russia and Thailand are placed at very end as they show certain degree of stability.